Welcome to Startup Outcome Simulator!

This tool allows you to simulate the distribution of outcomes for founder liquidity in starting a company. It shows results based on 100 trials in the case of going solo or participating in a ShareShare equity pool.

The upside of doing a ShareShare depends heavily on your beliefs about the relative potential of the companies in your pool compared to your own. As such, you can input separate assumptions for your own company vs. those you are pooled with.

The model is based on a study conducted by Correlation Ventures that looked at the venture returns of 21,000 financings from the period of 2004-2013. We modeled our power-law distribution to match its outcomes. Because their study only looks at financed companies, we include a parameter for how likely you think it is for your company to be financed.

To get started, click "Simulate".